“So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep pocketed people who may be expressing preference more than actual expectation”


Geoff Buchan writes in with another theory about how prediction markets can go wrong:

I did want to mention one fascinating datum on Brexit: one UK bookmaker said they received about twice as many bets on leave as on remain, but the average bet on remain was *five* times what was bet on leave, meaning more than twice as much money was bet on remain.

Clearly weathier people, most likely pro remain, would be able to bet more, and I strongly suspect a similar bias exists in prediction markets, which, the last time I dabbled in them, had quite small open …read more

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DigitalGlobe’s WorldView-4 sees first light

We wrote about DigitalGlobe’s WorldView-4 back in August and again when it was expected to be launched in September. However, the launch was subsequently delayed and actually took place on November 11, 2016.

DigitalGlobe has recently released WorldView-4’s first public image, taken on November 26, featuring the Yoyogi National Gymnasium in Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan.

And here is part of the image zoomed in, showing the full resolution:

You can see people in the tennis courts (identifiable by their shadows). Overall, the resolution and colours are clearly better than the average satellite imagery found in Google Earth, but of course not as …read more

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Will Earth still exist 5 billion years from now?

(KU Leuven) What will happen to Earth when, in a few billion years’ time, the sun is a hundred times bigger than it is today? Using the most powerful radio telescope in the world, an international team of astronomers has set out to look for answers in the star L2 Puppis. Five billion years ago, this star was very similar to the sun as it is today. …read more

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Dipole orientation: New dimension in super-resolution microscopy

(Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics) Recently, a new polarization-dipole azimuth-based super-resolution technique has been proposed by a group of researchers in Peking University (China), Tsinghua University (China), and University of Technology Sydney (Australia). It not only provides a new dimension for super-resolution, but also provides a timely solution to a recent hot debate in the field. …read more

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